The global trade war could force Pakistan into a choice it’s not ready to make.
In a quiet meeting room at the Foreign Office in Islamabad, a map lies spread across the table. One side highlights ports and highways under CPEC, the grand China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The other shows military bases, IMF agreements, and security alignments closely tied to the United States. The map reflects a bigger problem: Pakistan is trying to sit on two chairs at the same time. But now, the chairs are being pulled apart.
The world’s two superpowers are China and the US are no longer just economic competitors. They are deep in a digital, trade, and political cold war. Sanctions are flying. Alliances are shifting. Countries around the world are being told, directly or indirectly: pick a side.
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| Billions invested. Billions at stake. Can Pakistan afford to choose? |
Pakistan has long walked the tightrope. It receives military aid and financial support from Washington while growing increasingly reliant on Beijing for infrastructure, loans, and strategic influence. But what happens when both powers start seeing neutrality as disloyalty?
This isn’t hypothetical anymore.
Last month, a leaked US State Department memo, published by Foreign Policy, warned of “growing discomfort” with Pakstan’s closeness to China’s military-tech programs. Days later, a Chinese diplomat posted a strongly worded tweet about “external actors disrupting regional partnerships”—a not-so-subtle jab at the US.
Caught in the middle, Pakistan is struggling to maintain its balancing act.
Pressure from All Sides
In recent months, American pressure has been rising. Washington wants transparency in Chinese loans, tighter security checks at Gwadar Port, and limits on Chinese telecom equipment like Huawei and ZTE in Pakistan’s 5G rollout. These demands are being framed as conditions for continued economic and defense cooperation.
“Our partners must reflect shared values and ensure mutual accountability,” said US Assistant Secretary Donald Lu at a press briefingThe tone was calmbut the message was clear.
At the same time, China is growing impatient. Despite investing over $60 billion in CPEC, many projects are stalled due to bureaucratic delays, policy reversals, and growing local resistance. Beijing wants more control and quicker decisions.
“We expect our friendship to be matched with unwavering strategic clarity,” said China’s Ambassador Jiang Zaidong during a visit to the Ministry of Planning. It sounded like a friendly remark but it was not just only aboyut friendship
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| Tug of War: One nation, two expectations.image source AFP 06-may-2023 |
The Risk of Miscalculation
Experts warn that trying to please both sides could eventually backfire. “Strategic ambiguity might work in diplomacy but not in economic dependency,” says Dr. Huma Baqai, a political analyst in Karachi. “You can’t take loans from one superpower while quietly siding with the other in intelligence or trade.”
The danger isn’t just losing aid. It's losing trust from both sides.
There’s already talk in Washington about reviewing Pakistan’s eligibility for trade benefits under the GSP program. At the sme time, China is reportedly reconsidering its pace of investments in Balochistan due to security risks and diplomatic unpredictability.
And what if tensions grow into sanctions? Pakistan could find itself cut off from both sides—unable to trade freely, develop infrastructure, or defend its digital networks.
The Way Forward?
Some believe this could be an opportunity. A wake-up call for Pakistan to finally build internal strength instead of relying on superpower politics. Boost domestic manufacturing. Deepen ties with regional players like Turkey, Central Asia, and ASEAN. Build a foreign policy that isn’t shaped by pressure—but purpose.
But such shifts take time, stability, and vision—three things Pakistan is still struggling to hold onto.
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| A generation caught in the crossfire of global power games |
A Choice We Might Be Forced to Make
Right now, Islamabad insists it can manage both friendships. But the world is moving toward sharper lines, faster than expected. There may come a point when choosing neither is no longer an option.
And when that moment comes, will paksitan be ready and will the choice be made for us?
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